Max Cavallari / SOS MEDITERRANEE
The reduction in arrivals highlighted by the Meloni Government has not translated into fewer deaths at sea. On the contrary, the data show that crossing the Mediterranean has become increasingly deadly.
In recent days, the Meloni Government has repeatedly pointed to the decline in the number of people arriving in Italy by sea. While it is true that fewer people are attempting to cross the Central Mediterranean, what remains largely unsaid is that the risk of dying or going missing at sea has increased significantly.
While the decrease in arrivals is presented as evidence of successful migration policies, mortality data tell a different story. Between January and August 2026, the number of people attempting to cross the Central Mediterranean dropped by 39%, from 59,150 to 35,912*. However, the mortality rate rose from 1.5% to 2.6%, meaning that people attempting the crossing today face a greater risk of dying than those who travelled the same route a year ago. Current estimates indicate that at least one person dies for every 38 people attempting the crossing, compared to one in 68 last year.
Another reality often left unmentioned is that these policies are pushing people onto longer and more dangerous routes. As departure points have shifted, more people are taking the route from Libya to Crete, a substantially longer stretch of open sea with more limited surveillance and search and rescue (SAR) coverage. This route now accounts for approximately two-thirds of all sea arrivals in Greece (12,943 out of 19,118) and 61% of all deaths recorded along the route (237 out of 386). Overall, deaths along the Eastern Mediterranean route have increased by 80% this year.
Focusing solely on the decrease in arrivals obscures this shift in migration routes and the reality that people are increasingly being forced into longer and more perilous journeys.
The invisibility of deaths at sea has become a structural feature of the Mediterranean crossing. The number of people reported dead or missing in the Mediterranean should be understood as a minimum estimate rather than a complete count. IOM’s Missing Migrants Project has acknowledged that, in addition to its published figures, it maintains a separate list of reported deaths that it has not yet been able to verify, amounting to around 400 additional cases so far in 2026. None of these cases are included in the official count.
The month of August provides a concrete example of what lies behind this gap in numbers. Over the course of the month, at least 41 bodies were found at sea or washed ashore along the Libyan coast, with no apparent connection to any documented shipwreck. Seventeen of these were directly observed by Albatross, our monitoring aircraft. The current death toll for August therefore very likely fails to reflect the true scale of human loss at sea.
Notes:
* This figure includes arrivals in Italy (19,129), interceptions by the Libyan Coast Guard (15,790), and reported deaths and missing persons (938).
Methodological note on the mortality rate: This mortality rate is calculated using data on arrivals (UNHCR), deaths and disappearances (IOM Missing Migrants Project), and interceptions (IOM Libya). The estimate should be interpreted with caution due to data limitations. Interception data remain incomplete, as Tunisian authorities have not published interception figures since June 2024, while IOM data on deaths and disappearances are widely considered to be underestimates. As a result, the actual mortality rate is likely higher than this estimate suggests.
